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Investment journal · 1 October 2025

Archived article · Originally published 1 October 2025. Views and figures are from the original article.

📄 My Investment Thesis & Disclaimers

Recent Hobby @Vipul Kashyap

Note: If you have been added to the channel and are not interested in this spam, please feel free to exit. I wont mind … at all 😀

Why I Am Writing This

Many of my friends have asked me to share stock tips after seeing some success in my own investing journey. I am not doing this to be a "stock adviser" — I'm creating this channel mainly to document my own investment thesis. Writing down why I bought a stock forces me to question my reasoning, be honest with myself, and avoid emotional decisions.

If my notes help others explore ideas, that's a bonus — but this is first and foremost my personal record of thinking.

My Background

I started investing primarily through my SMSF (self managed PF/401K for Aussies)

Recently, my investments have done well — but I want to be clear: this could simply be because the stock market has been going up overall. It is very common for people to believe they've become skilled in a bull market, when in reality they've just been lucky with timing.

I am not a full-time stock picker. I invest on the side, in areas I personally understand. As an IT Commercial Manager, I build detailed business cases and DCF models for a living — but in investing I deliberately avoid them. Unlike my programs, where I can directly influence outcomes, in markets I’m just a bystander. So I focus instead on simple, asymmetric theses.

As Mohnish Pabrai (my investment Guru) says: "if you can’t explain your investment to a 10-year-old, it probably won't work"

SMSF Investor

Started with self-managed superannuation fund

Recent Success

But could be market timing luck

Side Investor

Cautious approach in familiar areas

IT Commercial Manager / No DCF Models

Build DCFs for a living, but avoid them in investing — prefer simple, asymmetric theses

How I Invest

Ultra-long horizon

I usually invest with a 10+ year view. If you need the money in the next few years, please do not consider these stocks.

High-risk, asymmetric bets

I look for companies that I believe could return 10x to 100x in the long run. Because of that, I fully expect that many of my investments could go to zero.

Not the usual suspects

Don't expect to see NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, or the "Magnificent 7" in my picks — those are great companies, but I don't expect them to 10x from here.

Independent conviction

I would never buy a stock just because someone else recommended it. I always make my own call — and I believe you should too. If you choose to act on anything I write here, it's entirely your decision.

Best & Worst Bets (Exited Positions)

To illustrate my investment style, I want to share two examples of asymmetric bets I made in the past. Both positions were around 10% of my portfolio and are now fully exited. One returned over 6×, while the other lost ~80%. Taken together, they demonstrate why asymmetric investing works — as long as you pick enough winners.

Best Bet – MoneyLion

Entry & Exit

  • I invested at $14 and exited when Gen Digital acquired MoneyLion at $82, plus contingent ADRs valued at ~$5–$9, giving me a return of ~6×.

The Business

  • MoneyLion was both a financial marketplace (loans, credit, insurance, investments) and a media platform that produced financial content.
  • This combination kept customers engaged and significantly lowered customer acquisition costs (CAC).

My Thesis

I saw MoneyLion as the Amazon (marketplace) + Facebook (content engine) of finance, with a differentiated moat. Growth in customers was clearly visible.

The stock was beaten down ~97% despite improving fundamentals. Lightning had struck thrice:

1

It SPAC'd at the wrong time and was punished during the post-SPAC crash.

2

It was hit again in the tech stock sell-off, when sentiment turned against growth names.

3

It was dragged down a third time during the banking crisis, which hurt all finance-related companies regardless of exposure.

  • Despite these external shocks, the company kept growing and strengthening its platform.
  • This was exactly the kind of asymmetric bet I look for: the downside was already priced in, but the upside was clear if execution continued.
  • I did not need a detailed DCF model to see this — simple napkin-math and business logic were enough.

Worst Bet – NeoMetals

Entry & Exit

  • My worst investment was in NeoMetals, an Australian microcap I entered at a ~A$400M market cap and exited at ~A$80M, taking an 80% loss.

The Business

  • At the time, NeoMetals looked attractive: it had a joint venture with Mercedes-Benz to build a lithium recycling plant, along with MOUs for additional factories.
  • It also held projects in vanadium production, direct lithium extraction (DLE), and a titanium asset in Australia.

My Thesis

  • I believed the recycling business alone could 5× the stock in 10 years, and the other assets could be monetised to avoid dilution.
  • Initially the stock doubled, and I held because my thesis aimed for a 5×+ return.

What Went Wrong

  • One by one, the projects collapsed. The JVs fell apart, the optionality disappeared, and eventually management pivoted to gold exploration — far from my original thesis.
  • My mistake was assuming that multiple early-stage projects created safety. In reality, they were all fragile, and diversification in this case was an illusion of protection.

Net Portfolio Effect

The Math

+50%

Portfolio Gain

A 6× gain on a 10% position added about +50% to my portfolio.

-8%

Portfolio Loss

An 80% loss on another 10% position reduced it by –8%.

+42%

Net Result

Taken together, the net result was still +42% overall, showing why asymmetric investing works.

In other words a $100 portfolio at the end of these to bets would stand at $142.

This demonstrates the power of asymmetric investing: when you limit your downside but maintain unlimited upside potential, the mathematics can really work.

Disclaimers

Please read these carefully before following this channel:

Not advice

I am not a licensed financial adviser. Nothing here is financial advice.

Do your own research

Treat anything I post as a starting point for your own thinking, not as a conclusion.

Risk warning

Only invest money you can afford to lose. I am comfortable losing 100% on some bets.

No sell signals

I may forget, change my mind, or simply stop tracking a stock. I cannot and will not take responsibility for telling you when to sell.

Your responsibility

If you choose to invest based on what you read here, the decision and outcome are fully yours.

Closing Thought

This channel is not about me being "right" — it's about me documenting my thinking, sharing it openly, and learning along the way. If you follow along, take it as ideas, not instructions.

Your money, your decision. Always.

Sources & Influences

I read and listen widely—newsletters, channels like mine and independent analysts—to form my own view. Many concepts here are learnt from investors I respect and adapted to my style. I won’t list names to avoid biasing your research—with one exception: Mohnish Pabrai, who set me on this path.

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If you would like to browse all my earlier investment theses, you can find them here: